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Prediction for CME (2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-15T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35664/-1
CME Note: Bright, 3-part CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 2024-12-15T01:25Z. The source of this CME is a long filament stretched from W10 to W60 along the S25 latitude that erupts starting around 2024-12-14T21:50Z with full lift off by 2024-12-14T23:50Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Associated moving/opening field lines are visible along the SW in GOES SUVI 284. Sympathetic eruption appears to occur around/within AR13924 which is visible as brightening in GOES SUVI 195. Additionally, post-eruptive arcades are visible in GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-17T04:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-18T01:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-12-15T22:39:24Z
## Message ID: 20241215-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T04:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~536 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 21/-31 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001

2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-12-15T01:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~410 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 46/-34 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect BepiColombo, Europa Clipper, Juice, Lucy, Mars, STEREO A, and Solar Orbiter (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CMEs will reach BepiColombo at 2024-12-16T02:46Z, Europa Clipper at 2024-12-18T20:40Z, Juice at 2024-12-17T04:40Z, Lucy at 2024-12-18T02:45Z, Mars at 2024-12-20T09:45Z, and STEREO A at 2024-12-18T04:40Z. The flank of the CMEs will reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-12-17T21:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-12-18T01:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-12-15T04:23:00-CME-001, 2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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Lead Time: 30.02 hour(s)
Difference: -20.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-15T22:39Z

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